29 Jul · 17:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1443
FormLWLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Smolka
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1509
FormLWWLL
43%
57%
Fair odds · Smolka
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H19-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-14)