29 Jul · 18:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1389
FormLWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kowalczyk
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1404
FormLWWWW
48%
52%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 35% · 2.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+15
H2H17-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.