29 Jul · 18:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1291
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Marchlewski
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1298
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Marchlewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.