30 Jul · 05:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1466
FormWWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kurek
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1519
FormWWLLW
44%
56%
🌟Sokolowski covers set handicap as underdog 64% (78)
Fair odds · Kurek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H16-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-6)