30 Jul · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KP
🇵🇱Kacper Petas
ELO 1814
FormLWWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Felkel
GF
🇵🇱Grzegorz Felkel
ELO 1896
FormWLLWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Felkel
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H44-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-38)