29 Jul · 19:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1578
FormWWLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jadach
OJ
🇵🇱Oskar Jadach
ELO 1581
FormWWWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Jadach
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 36% · 2.75· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H17-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.