29 Jul · 21:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1343
FormLWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Fabis
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1286
FormLLWLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 40% · 2.53· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H11-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-8)