29 Jul · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1265
FormLWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marchlewski
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1286
FormLLWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Marchlewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.