29 Jul · 21:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JS
🇵🇱Janus Slawomir
ELO 1525
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Slawomir
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1520
FormWWLWW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Michalik🌟Michalik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Slawomir
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.18· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.