29 Jul · 22:45 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1667
FormLWLWW
73%Win chancemodel fair 1.37Tkaczyk
MW
🇵🇱Michal Wolny
ELO 1437
FormLWWLW
73%
27%
🌟Tkaczyk stays under total as favourite 71% (45)
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 73% · 1.37vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 58%Total ~76 pts
3-0
32%
3-1
27%
3-2
15%
2-3
11%
1-3
10%
Elo Gap+230
H2H13-7
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+230)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-7)