29 Jul · 23:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1290
FormWLLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1338
FormLLWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 43% · 2.31· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H11-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-9)