30 Jul · 00:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1313
FormWLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fabis
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1324
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H31-32
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.