29 Jul · 23:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1292
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Marchlewski
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1273
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Marchlewski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+19
H2H4-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.