30 Jul · 00:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1478
FormWWLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Koczyba
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1558
FormWWLLL
41%
59%
🌟Urban covers set handicap as underdog 67% (15)
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 68% · 1.48· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+80
H2H21-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+80)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-14)