30 Jul · 00:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MS
🇵🇱Michal Skorski
ELO 1385
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Skorski
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1324
FormLLLLW
57%
43%
🌟Fabis covers set handicap as underdog 70% (33)
Fair odds · Skorski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+61
H2H48-55
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)