30 Jul · 00:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1584
FormWLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Nocun
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1512
FormLWWLW
58%
42%
🌟Nocun stays under total as favourite 71% (34)
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 74% · 1.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+72
H2H46-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (46-11)