30 Jul · 01:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KM
🇵🇱Kacper Marchlewski
ELO 1297
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Golaszewski
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1306
FormLWLLW
49%
51%
🌟Golaszewski rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (26)
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.98· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.