30 Jul · 01:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1553
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Koczyba
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1545
FormLLWWW
51%
49%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 72% · 1.39· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+8
H2H48-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.