30 Jul · 04:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1561
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Pruszkowski
JP
🇵🇱Jakub Pruszkowski
ELO 1614
FormWWWWL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Pruszkowski
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~80 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H18-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-11)