30 Jul · 04:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1473
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Urban
AB
🇵🇱Adrian Burkacki
ELO 1395
FormLLLWL
59%
41%
🌟Urban rarely covers set handicap as favourite 29% (31)
Fair odds · Urban
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+78
H2H11-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-3)