30 Jul · 06:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1488
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Minda
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1482
FormWWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H55-54
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.