30 Jul · 06:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KJ
🇵🇱Krzysztof Juszczyk
ELO 1557
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Juszczyk
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1553
FormWWWLL
50%
50%
🌟Lebek stays under total as underdog 65% (17)
Fair odds · Juszczyk
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H4-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.