30 Jul · 07:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1546
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Stapor
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1503
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
🌟Stapor goes over total as favourite 66% (32)
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+43
H2H10-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-8)