30 Jul · 07:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1409
FormWLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Warpas
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1326
FormLLLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+83
H2H21-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+83)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (21-11)