30 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1549
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Gumulinski
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1542
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Oracz stays under total as underdog 62% (16)
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+7
H2H17-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.