30 Jul · 09:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1401
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Dabrowski
ID
🇵🇱Igor Dabrowski
ELO 1451
FormWWWLL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Dabrowski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.83· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)