30 Jul · 11:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
RN
🇵🇱Rafal Niemiec
ELO 1488
FormWWLWL
61%Win chancemodel fair 1.64Niemiec
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kaczmarek
ELO 1383
FormLWWWL
61%
39%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kaczmarek🌟Niemiec goes over total as favourite 70% (30)
Fair odds · Niemiec
Model 61% · 1.64vsMarket 77% · 1.30· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 46%Total ~77 pts
3-1
24%
3-0
22%
3-2
15%
1-3
15%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+105
H2H2-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+105)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-1)