30 Jul · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1520
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Oracz
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1500
FormLWWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+20
H2H13-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.