30 Jul · 10:50 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MA
🇵🇱Mariusz Adamus
ELO 1463
FormLWLLL
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1553
FormWWLLW
40%
60%
🌟Adamus goes over total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 43%Total ~78 pts
1-3
24%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+90
H2H34-31
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+90)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (34-31)