30 Jul · 13:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OS
🇵🇱Oliwier Sokolowski
ELO 1459
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Sokolowski
OV
🇵🇱Oliver Vincenec
ELO 1430
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vincenec🌟Sokolowski goes over total as favourite 62% (45)
Fair odds · Sokolowski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 43% · 2.32· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H4-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.