30 Jul · 12:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1495
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pelka
PP
🇵🇱Piotr Przewlocki
ELO 1486
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
🌟Przewlocki goes over total as underdog 68% (50)
Fair odds · Pelka
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H5-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.