30 Jul · 13:25 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1349
FormLWLLL
83%Win chancemodel fair 1.20Durda
MD
🇵🇱Michal Durda
ELO 1706
FormWWWWW
17%
83%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 75% (20)
Fair odds · Durda
Model 83% · 1.20vsMarket 81% · 1.24· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 70%Total ~73 pts
0-3
41%
1-3
29%
2-3
13%
3-2
8%
3-1
6%
Elo Gap+357
H2H5-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+357)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (5-0)