30 Jul · 14:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JP
🇵🇱Jerzy Pelka
ELO 1502
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Gumulinski
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gumulinski
ELO 1550
FormLLWWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Gumulinski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 55% · 1.82· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+48
H2H10-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+48)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-6)