30 Jul · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1629
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kapik
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1602
FormLLWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chmielowski
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.