30 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KS
🇵🇱Karol Strowski
ELO 1743
FormLLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Strowski
KK
🇵🇱Krystian Kolodziej
ELO 1732
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Strowski goes over total as favourite 70% (89)
Fair odds · Strowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 43% · 2.35· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H48-42
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.