30 Jul · 18:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MR
🇵🇱Mateusz Rutkowski
ELO 1752
FormWWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rutkowski
KS
🇵🇱Karol Strowski
ELO 1743
FormLLWLW
51%
49%
🌟Strowski covers set handicap as underdog 67% (54)
Fair odds · Rutkowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
20%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H5-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.