31 Jul · 00:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1602
FormLLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kapik
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kapik
ELO 1629
FormLWWWW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Chmielowski
Fair odds · Kapik
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+27
H2H15-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.