30 Jul · 21:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PG
🇵🇱Piotr Gesiarz
ELO 1510
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zelezik
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1545
FormLWWLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Zelezik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+35
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.