30 Jul · 20:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1545
FormLWWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Zelezik
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1488
FormLWWLL
56%
44%
🌟Michalik covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Zelezik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+57
H2H14-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+57)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-1)