31 Jul · 05:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1491
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kostepski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1496
FormLWWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H0-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.