31 Jul · 03:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1485
FormLLWWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Michalik
KK
🇵🇱Kacper Kwiatkowski
ELO 1406
FormLWLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~79 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+79
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+79)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)