31 Jul · 02:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1464
FormWLWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Michalik
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1485
FormLLWWL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+21
H2H19-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.