30 Jul · 19:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Marcin Kowalczyk
ELO 1415
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kowalczyk
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1347
FormWWLLL
58%
42%
🌟Kowalczyk rarely covers set handicap as favourite 24% (25)
Fair odds · Kowalczyk
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+68
H2H5-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)