30 Jul · 19:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1465
FormWLLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Baron
PS
🇵🇱Pawel Slosarczyk
ELO 1412
FormLWWLL
56%
44%
🌟Baron rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (46)
Fair odds · Baron
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~79 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H14-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-2)