31 Jul · 06:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JZ
🇵🇱Jan Zandecki
ELO 1818
FormWWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zandecki
SK
🇵🇱Szymon Kolasa
ELO 1809
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolasa🌟Kolasa covers set handicap as underdog 66% (38)
Fair odds · Zandecki
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.74· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+9
H2H13-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.