31 Jul · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇵🇱Szymon Kolasa
ELO 1809
FormLWWLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Olejnik
MO
🇵🇱Martin Olejnik
ELO 1868
FormWWLWW
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolasa🌟Kolasa covers set handicap as underdog 66% (38)
Fair odds · Olejnik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
0-3
18%
3-1
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
14%
Elo Gap+59
H2H13-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+59)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-6)