31 Jul · 06:30 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1350
FormWLLLW
80%Win chancemodel fair 1.25Wojtaszczyk
WW
🇵🇱Wojciech Wojtaszczyk
ELO 1657
FormLLLWW
20%
80%
🌟Nowak goes over total as underdog 68% (25)
Fair odds · Wojtaszczyk
Model 80% · 1.25vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 63%Total ~76 pts
0-3
34%
1-3
29%
2-3
16%
3-2
9%
3-1
8%
Elo Gap+307
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+307)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)