31 Jul · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MJ
🇵🇱Marcin Jadczyk
ELO 1814
FormLLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Grela
AG
🇵🇱Artur Grela
ELO 1861
FormWWLWW
45%
55%
🌟Grela goes over total as favourite 65% (91)
Fair odds · Grela
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H33-27
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-27)