31 Jul · 07:40 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JZ
🇵🇱Jan Zandecki
ELO 1818
FormWWWLL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Olejnik
MO
🇵🇱Martin Olejnik
ELO 1868
FormWWLWW
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Zandecki
Fair odds · Olejnik
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H22-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-4)