30 Jul · 23:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DK
🇵🇱Dawid Kotwica
ELO 1348
FormWWLWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Trela
MT
🇵🇱Mateusz Trela
ELO 1390
FormLWWWW
45%
55%
🌟Kotwica stays under total as underdog 66% (29)
Fair odds · Trela
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.88· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+42
H2H14-11
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+42)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-11)